Understanding the Role of Warmer Oceans in the Alteration of the Global Climate Regime

As climate change continues to warm the global ocean, it will change patterns of currents and gyres (and thus heat redistribution) in such a way that there will be a fundamental change in the climate regime as we know it, and possibly a powerful loss of global climate stability³. The basic changes will be an acceleration of phenomena that are already occurring: sea-level rise, alterations of rainfall patterns and storm frequency or intensity, and increased siltation.

Long-term impacts of climate change in coastal areas, such as sea level rise or storm surges, could result in the increased erosion of shores and associated habitat, increased salinity of estuaries and freshwater aquifers, altered tidal ranges in rivers and bays, changes in sediment and nutrient transport, and increased coastal flooding. Such changes have considerable implications for coastal areas where much of the world's population and significant economic activity is concentrated.

The key to understanding the loss of global climate stability is to compare global change to local change. The warming of the planet appears to be following a pattern that is statistically consistent with the increasing accumulations of CO2 in the atmosphere. As a result, the warming of the ocean is becoming more measurable and predictable. However, all these heat transfers create local dynamics that are significantly less predictable. At the local and regional scale, due to heat disparities and too numerous points of interaction, the indirect changes in local weather patterns will not be uniform, nor necessarily gradual, nor consistent over time. Rather than taking centuries to change, local weather changes are happening before our eyes. Less snow here, more rain there. Longer periods of drought, later arrival of spring rains. Earlier hurricanes and shorter winters. There will be an accompanying loss of biodiversity as ocean temperatures increase, sea levels rise, and disturbances increase.

³Wolfson, R. and S. H. Schneider. 2002. “Understanding Climate Science.” In Climate Change Policy. Island Press, Washington D.C., pp. 3-51.